League positions can lie in October. Newcastle United sit 11th, Aston Villa are 16th, and on paper that gives the home side the healthier look. Watch the past week and the picture shifts quickly.

Newcastle were taken apart 4-1 by newly promoted Coventry City on Monday night, a result that cut through some of the early optimism around Matthias Jaissle. Aston Villa, meanwhile, put six past Fenerbahce on Wednesday and made it two wins from two in the Champions League. Momentum matters, and right now Villa have more of it.

Villa have won three and drawn one of their last four matches. The messy opening to their campaign has started to clear. Newcastle have had the opposite experience. Two heavy defeats in their last three games have exposed the instability that can sit underneath an encouraging start. This fixture now looks less like mid-table noise and more like a test of nerve, structure and reaction.

Newcastle vs Aston Villa kicks off at 5.30pm BST on Saturday, October 17 at St James’ Park. Newcastle remain unbeaten at home this season, which is the obvious counter to the panic created by the defeat at Coventry.

Home form has been respectable rather than dominant. Newcastle have beaten Hull and drawn with Liverpool and Bournemouth on their own ground. Across those three games they scored seven and conceded five, which tells you plenty. There is threat in the side, but there is also looseness, and opponents are getting chances.

Villa’s away form points in the same direction. Their last three away wins in all competitions came via scorelines of 3-2 against Club Brugge, 3-1 against Coventry and 3-2 against Tottenham. Add in the 6-0 win over Fenerbahce and there is no mystery here. Villa games are opening up, and they are profiting from it.

Jaissle has issues to manage. Bazoumana Toure is a fresh doubt after taking a blow to the ankle in stoppage time against Coventry. Tino Livramento is rated 50-50 because of the thigh problem that forced him to withdraw from England duty.

Jacob Ramsey has only a slim chance of facing his former club, while Anthony Elanga may not return from his hamstring injury until December. Goalkeeper Ewen Jaouen is out for two months after suffering a hamstring injury on international duty with France Under-21s.